Murphy Horning on College Football

Big Ten title game clinch scenarios The East is self-explanatory. The West still has three contenders. Wisconsin wins vs Minnesota, they're in. An Iowa loss on Black Friday to Nebraska, plus a Purdue win vs Indiana would create a play in game between Wisconsin @ Minnesota the next day. Yes, the Gophers need a four way tie to get in. (Minnesota beat Wisconsin who beat Purdue who beat Iowa).  East division Winner of #2 Ohio State @ #5 Michigan goes to the B1G Championship. West division clinch scenarios Wisconsin Wisconsin beats Minnesota OR Iowa loss + Indiana win  Iowa Iowa win + Wisconsin loss Minnesota Minnesota win + Iowa loss + Purdue win (@ Indiana) SEC Both Alabama and Georgia have clinched their respective divisions, and will play each other in the SEC Title Game.  Big 12 The top two teams in the Big 12 go to the conference's championship game. Oklahoma State has clinched a berth in the title game because they own the tiebreaker over two loss Baylor. The Sooners ne...

PLAYOFF Status Changes for Week 13 (here's last week's guide for reference) Michigan State: Controls own destiny to Eliminated Oregon: Controls own destiny to Eliminated Wake Forest: On life support to Eliminated Cincinnati: Doesn't control own destiny to Controls own destiny Michigan: Doesn't control own destiny to Controls own destiny The biggest winner of Week 12 is Cincinnati. The Bearcats are finally in the Top 4 (three weeks overdue many would say) and now control their own destiny for the CFP. Oregon and Michigan State getting blown out turned heads in the college football world, and had significant impact on the playoff race. Suddenly, Notre Dame appears to be one break away (more on that later) for the College Football Playoff. Here is a breakdown of the playoff chase for each team in the race.  #1 Georgia: Controls own destiny Alabama winning the SEC West will be the last significant thing that happens to Georgia in the regular season as that ensures a Bulldo...

CFP Status changes for Week 12 (See last week's guide for reference) Oregon: moves from doesn't control own destiny up   to controls own destiny  Notre Dame: moves from on life support  up   to doesn't control own destiny  Oklahoma: moves from c ontrols own destiny down   to  on life support Texas A&M: moves from on life support down   to eliminated  Texas A&M lost to Ole Miss, so whatever miracle playoff chance they had is gone. Oklahoma's loss makes things easier for teams on the outside looking in, especially Oregon who now controls their own destiny. Even for teams who's statuses I didn't change, their playoff chances went up after the Sooners defeat to Baylor last week. For the team capsules below, I will show the status of each team, and if their playoff chances went up, down or unchanged after week 11. Without further ado, here's the guide for each team remaining in the playoff race #1 Georgia: controls own destiny Playoff ch...

Who I'd like to be based on playoff scenarios Teams who control their own destiny #1 Georgia #2 Alabama #3 Ohio State #4 Oklahoma #5 Michigan State Teams who don't quite control their own destiny, but likely in if they win out #6 Oregon #7 Michigan Team who don't control their own destiny, but will get in with some help  #8 Oklahoma State #9 Cincinnati Teams still "alive" but on life support  #10 Texas A&M #11 Notre Dame #12 Wake Forest #1 Georgia- Controls own destiny Explanation:   Barring a stunning loss for the Bulldogs in their last three regular season games, Georgia will be in the playoff regardless of what happens in the SEC Championship Game. Two SEC teams will likely make the playoff if Georgia loses the SEC title game to Alabama. There won't be any controversies about the Bulldogs unless they get shocked in the next three weeks. There is no way Georgia wins out and doesn't finish #1.  Georgia's remaining schedule:  11/13 @ 4-5 Tennessee ...

Maryland (1-1 Big Ten, 4-1 overall) @ #7 Ohio State (2-0 Big Ten, 4-1 overall), Saturday 10/9 at Noon on FOX at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, OH. Line: Ohio State -21 Ohio State and Maryland will play their seventh matchup since the Terrapins joined the Big Ten in 2014. The Buckeyes are 6-0 in the series, with the last matchup being in 2019 where OSU won 73-13. The two programs were scheduled to face off in College Park, MD during November of last year, but the game was canceled due to COVID issues in the Maryland program.  Buckeyes fans are feeling much better about the team after a 52-13 win at Rutgers last week, in which Ohio State was only a two touchdown favorite. C.J. Stroud threw for five touchdown passes and 330 yards against what was the 18th best passing defense in the game, showing Stroud is clearly better than how he looked vs Tulsa. The pollsters are feeling better about the Buckeyes as well, as Ohio State jumped from 11th to seventh in the recent AP Poll. Maryland rolled ...

by Murphy Horning #11 Ohio State (3-1) @ Rutgers (3-1), Saturday 10/2 at 3:30 PM on Big Ten Network, at SHI Stadium in Piscataway, NJ Storylines This is the eighth matchup between Ohio State and Rutgers since the latter began Big Ten play in 2014. The Buckeyes are 7-0 in the series, and none of the matchups have been close. The closest matchup was last year, a game Ohio State won 49-27 at home vs the Scarlet Knights.  Ohio State had problems  in their first three games, which has led to the Buckeyes falling from third to 11th in the AP Poll since after Week 1. After Kyle McCord started vs Akron, and Jack Miller played most of the second half at QB, all indications show C.J. Stroud will be under center for the Buckeyes vs the Scarlet Knights in Week 5.  Rutgers has had a solid start under Greg Schiano in 2021, as the Scarlet Knights went 3-0 in non-conference play, and gave #19 Michigan a run for their money in Ann Arbor, as Rutgers lost 20-13. The Scarlet Knights boast th...

#1 Alabama QB Bryce Young is exceeding expectations for the Tide, as he's thrown for 10 touchdowns and no interceptions through three games. A two point win against Florida while giving up 245 rushing yards shows Alabama isn't invincible, but the Tide's QB situation looks better than the other heavyweights. Through three weeks, the Tide is the best of the lot.  Properly rated #2 Georgia Georgia's offense has been rather pedestrian, as J.T. Daniels has thrown for three TD's and two picks, and neither Zamir White or Kendall Milton has emerged as a feature running back. The Bulldogs defense more than makes up for their middling offense through three weeks, as they have the best yardage and scoring defense in the country. That alone puts the Dawgs among title contenders in 2021. Properly rated #3 Oregon The Ducks shocked Ohio State on September 11th without Kayvon Thibodeaux and Justin Flowe, arguably Oregon's two best defensive players. Oregon plays sound offense, ...

After a 35-28 loss to Oregon on September 11th, a 41-20 win against Tulsa did little to calm the nerves of Buckeye fans. To be sure, Ohio State's performance against the Golden Hurricane won't cut it against teams like Penn State, Michigan or Iowa if the Buckeyes get that far. That being said, here's the three biggest reasons Ohio State has struggled the first three games.  Lack of progression from C.J. Stroud Stroud has shown signs of brilliance. He threw for four touchdowns in his debut at Minnesota, and 484 yards vs Oregon, but there are some troubling trends. There hasn't been any notable progression from Stroud, as his quarterback rating has declined in each of the last three games. A lot Stroud's problems, namely overthrowing open receivers and being too tentative when rolling outside the pocket are normal problems for young QBs, but there hasn't been any noticeable improvement. It is worth noting that Tulsa dropped eight back in coverage, which makes thin...

by Murphy Horning Storylines This is the first meeting between the Buckeyes and Gophers since 2018, and OSU's first trip to Minneapolis since 2014. Ohio State leads the all time series 46-7-0 against Minnesota in 53 meetings (of which Ohio State has won the last 11, including the vacated 2010 victory). The Gophers haven't beaten the Buckeyes since 2000, and haven't won against Ohio State in Minneapolis since 1981.  Ohio State is once again heavily favored to win the Big Ten, plus heavy favorites to get to the College Football Playoff for the 3rd year in a row. On offense, the Buckeyes are strong all over (strongest at O-line and wide receiver) and have a new starting quarterback in redshirt freshman C.J. Stroud. On defense, the Buckeyes front four is strong, but the back 7 (especially in the secondary) is a question mark. Minnesota went 3-4 last year in Big Ten play, a drop-off from the Gophers 11-2 season in 2019. The Gophers hope to get back to relevance in the Big Ten We...

by Murphy Horning #1 Alabama The Tide does lose eight offensive starters including QB Mac Jones, two NFL wide receivers including Heisman winning WR DeVonta Smith, and three starting offensive linemen. The defense returns eight starters and should be stronger than last year. This Alabama team is supremely talented as they have 2021's #1 recruiting class.  'Bama is a logical choice for #1 as they are the reigning national champs. The Tide only has one national title in the five times they've been ranked #1 under Nick Saban. They did lose a lot on offense, but Alabama (and incoming QB Bryce Young) more than deserves the benefit of the doubt. This team is surely a title contender, but because of the inexperienced offense, it's too early to rank the Tide #1. Overrated #2 Oklahoma The Sooners have Heisman favorite Spencer Rattler as their starting QB, and return their top three wide receivers on offense.  Alex Grinch's Sooners defense was statistically slightly better th...

by Murphy Horning With Texas and Oklahoma dropping the bomb by announcing their move to the SEC, the Big 12 will be dead by 2025 (if not sooner). Realignment chaos in college football is just getting started, and the next couple years will be much like 2011-12 when the Big East collapsed, Texas A&M and Missouri joined the SEC, and when West Virginia joined the Big 12 (speaking of....).  The Big Ten leads all Power Five conferences in revenue  (it's the B1G, the SEC and everyone else with revenue) and other programs across college sports. Other schools would be enticed by a great TV package in the B1G. That being said, it's impossible for the Big Ten to land the coup the SEC did.  Still, change is likely coming. Rumors indicate the Big Ten only wants to add AAU schools, with Notre Dame as an exception (indeed, 13 of 14 Big Ten schools are AAU members, and Nebraska was an AAU school before joining the conference) which narrows down the list of programs the Big Ten co...

by Murphy Horning DEFENSE Defensive Line:  Easily the Buckeyes' best defensive unit coming into fall camp. OSU did lose 2nd team all-B1G D-lineman Tommy Togiai plus Jonathan Cooper, but return 2nd team All-American Haskell Garrett plus five-star Taron Vincent, whom Ryan Day thinks can  take off  in 2021. OSU's pass rush slipped in 2020, with only 21 sacks compared to 54 in 2019. Look for the sack number to go up, as the Buckeyes have Jack Sawyer (three sacks in the spring game) and in July, Ohio State signed defensive end J.T. Tuimoloau, the #1 recruit for 2021. The interior is strong once again, and the pass rush should perform. Linebacker:  Ohio State replaces their three starting linebackers and their top backup linebacker from 2020. There is more uncertainty for this group than any other position on the team, as the current linebacking corps only saw a combined 200 snaps and made 37 tackles last year. OSU madden USC senior transfer Palaie Gaeteote IV, who has 105...