Big Ten Expansion Candidates

by Murphy Horning

With Texas and Oklahoma dropping the bomb by announcing their move to the SEC, the Big 12 will be dead by 2025 (if not sooner). Realignment chaos in college football is just getting started, and the next couple years will be much like 2011-12 when the Big East collapsed, Texas A&M and Missouri joined the SEC, and when West Virginia joined the Big 12 (speaking of....). 

The Big Ten leads all Power Five conferences in revenue (it's the B1G, the SEC and everyone else with revenue) and other programs across college sports. Other schools would be enticed by a great TV package in the B1G.

That being said, it's impossible for the Big Ten to land the coup the SEC did. 

Still, change is likely coming.

Rumors indicate the Big Ten only wants to add AAU schools, with Notre Dame as an exception (indeed, 13 of 14 Big Ten schools are AAU members, and Nebraska was an AAU school before joining the conference) which narrows down the list of programs the Big Ten could add.

Here is a list of schools mentioned as expansion candidates, and why they would or wouldn't join the conference.

The two most natural fits-Kansas and Iowa State
Kansas Jayhawks
Pros: AAU school close to Big Ten country. Would give the Big Ten a footprint in the Kansas City market, where Missouri and the SEC is present. Realignment is always about football, but Kansas' basketball brand is strong enough to make the B1G the strongest hoops league as well. 

Cons: Football is the money generator, not hoops, and KU Football is a disaster, with no bowl game since 2008. (in 2018-19, Kansas was 28th in revenue among Power 5 schools, below nine Big Ten athletic departments). KU isn't the coup some think they would be, but they are a good fit in the Big Ten. 

Iowa State Cyclones

Pros: AAU school within Big Ten country, which is massive. The Cyclones already have the annual Cy Hawk Trophy rivalry with Iowa, and it wouldn't be too much for them adjusting to the Big Ten. Given the collapse of the Big 12, Iowa State would be eager to maintain their status as a Power 5 school. 

Cons: Not a football school (yes, they're a projected Top 10 team this year, but the program has been a historic loser) and thus can only make so much money for the league. Furthermore, Iowa State wouldn't bring new revenue to the Big Ten, as the Hawkeyes are right in their backyard. 

The bottom line on Kansas and Iowa State: It's true that neither Kansas or Iowa State are football schools which is where conferences make money, but both are AAU institutions in the Midwest, which makes these schools attractive to the Big Ten's power brokers. Given the imminent death of the Big 12, Kansas and Iowa State will have to act somewhat fast to maintain power status, which makes the Big Ten a good match for these institutions. Kansas and Iowa State to the Big Ten looks to be a good match for the schools and the conference.

Two unlikely options the Big Ten should pursue-Oregon and USC

Oregon Ducks

Pros: Nike, Nike, Nike. This, Oregon being an AAU school, plus the Ducks being the 12th most valuable football program gives the Big Ten what it wants: a football school that generates money. The Big Ten makes more money than the Pac 12, which would only increase the stature of the Oregon program. 

Cons: Travel, Travel, Travel. If them and USC join, 14 of their 15 road trips would be two or three time zones away. It's highly likely Oregon would make more money in the Big Ten, but would travel expenses be so much that there would be no net gain for the athletic department? 

USC Trojans

Pros: Blue-blood football program that generates money. Perhaps most importantly, USC is an AAU school. USC has a lot of history with Big Ten programs, especially Michigan (eight Rose Bowl matchups) and Ohio State (seven Rose Bowl clashes). Would bring stature to the program and the conference.

Cons: Travel, Travel, Travel. Same problems as Oregon. USC is a private school, which would make them one of just two in the Big Ten. USC's  private school status plus being on the other side of the country makes them an odd fit for the conference. 

The bottom line on Oregon and USC: The Big Ten should pursue Oregon and USC if the conference is smart (given the past year, that may not be the case) two AAU schools and money generating football programs. Geography doesn't matter much these days in college sports (the Big Ten's reach is from New Jersey to Nebraska). This, however, may be a bridge too far for both schools and the conference given travel & traveling expenses. Given the travel factor, there may not be enough upside for Oregon & USC, though they would increase revenue. This match is better for the Big Ten than the two schools. 

List of Power 5, non-Big Ten AAU schools: Washington, Oregon, Stanford, USC, UCLA, Arizona, Utah, Colorado, Texas, Texas A&M, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa State, Vanderbilt, Florida, Georgia Tech, UNC, Duke, Virginia, Pitt 

You can (and should) try as much as they want, but it won't work-Notre Dame

Pros: Where do we begin? Notre Dame is one of the most iconic programs in college football within Big Ten country, with a lot of history in the Big Ten (especially with Michigan, Michigan State and Purdue). Given these factors, the Big Ten would  be stupid to not pursue Notre Dame......

Cons: .....but the Big Ten has pursued Notre Dame. The Big Ten offered ND membership in 1999, but almost no one at Notre Dame wanted to join the conference. Notre Dame considers itself a national brand, and joining a conference would undermine Notre Dame's image of itself.

The bottom line on Notre Dame: Unless someone holds a gun to their heads (and unless college football gets a commissioner, no one can), Notre Dame will not join a conference. Furthermore, the ACC's media deal doesn't expire until 2036, so there are very real obstacles to Notre Dame joining the Big Ten even if they want to. It has long been a fantasy of Big Ten fans for Notre Dame to join the conference, which would be terrific for the league, but don't get your hopes up. Notre Dame will stay independent for a long time. 

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