Guide to the CFP chase

Who I'd like to be based on playoff scenarios

Teams who control their own destiny

#1 Georgia

#2 Alabama

#3 Ohio State

#4 Oklahoma

#5 Michigan State

Teams who don't quite control their own destiny, but likely in if they win out

#6 Oregon

#7 Michigan

Team who don't control their own destiny, but will get in with some help 

#8 Oklahoma State

#9 Cincinnati

Teams still "alive" but on life support 

#10 Texas A&M

#11 Notre Dame

#12 Wake Forest

#1 Georgia-Controls own destiny

Explanation: Barring a stunning loss for the Bulldogs in their last three regular season games, Georgia will be in the playoff regardless of what happens in the SEC Championship Game. Two SEC teams will likely make the playoff if Georgia loses the SEC title game to Alabama. There won't be any controversies about the Bulldogs unless they get shocked in the next three weeks. There is no way Georgia wins out and doesn't finish #1. 

Georgia's remaining schedule: 11/13 @ 4-5 Tennessee (Line: Georgia -20.5), 11/20 vs 3-5 Charleston Southern (FCS), 11/27 @ 3-6 Georgia Tech, 12/4 SEC Championship Game in Atlanta

#2 Alabama-Controls own destiny 

Explanation: If the Tide wins out, they win the SEC and go to the College Football Playoff. Unlike Georgia however, Bama will not make the playoff if they lose another game. Still, Alabama's path to the playoff is self-explanatory. The Tide has a backloaded schedule meaning Alabama will likely finish #1 if they win out. Given the remaining schedule, there is no reason why Alabama could be jumped by someone below. 

Alabama's remaining schedule: 11/13 vs 1-8 New Mexico State (Line: Alabama -51.5), 11/20 vs #20 6-3 Arkansas, and 11/27 @ #17 6-3 Auburn 

#3 Oregon-Does not control own destiny 

What they need elsewhere

Georgia and Ohio State to win out OR Oklahoma loss

Explanation: If OSU wins the Big Ten, Oregon will retain the head-to-head edge over Ohio State and likely stays ahead of the Buckeyes. Michigan or Michigan State likely jumps Oregon if they win out and take the Big Ten crown with Oregon not having a head-to head advantage like they do vs OSU. 

Oklahoma might jump Oregon as well, as the Sooners have a backloaded schedule, and the committee may favor the Sooners resume by season's end. That would be a judgement call by the committee, but it is possible. Oregon isn't at risk of being jumped by Oklahoma State, as Oregon would have the best win between the two programs. 

It is possible, but not likely, that Oregon gets shut out of the playoff even if they win out.

Oregon's remaining schedule: 11/13 vs 5-4 Washington State (Line: Oregon -14), 11/20 @ #24 6-3 Utah, 11/27 vs 5-4 Oregon State 

#4 Ohio State-Controls own destiny

Explanation: There is no scenario in which the Buckeyes are jumped by a team below them. Ohio State is already fourth in the committee's rankings without any ranked wins for the Buckeyes. OSU has arguably the strongest remaining schedule in CFB, finishing with three ranked games (this not including the hypothetical Big Ten championship game). Ohio State can only rise if they win out.

Ohio State's remaining schedule: 11/13 vs #19 6-3 Purdue (Line: Ohio State -20), 11/20 vs #7 8-1 Michigan State, 11/27 @ #6 8-1 Michigan 

#5 Cincinnati-Does not control own destiny

What they need elsewhere 

Georgia to win out + Oklahoma loss + the committee judging them as stronger than Oklahoma State

Explanation: The Bearcats need more help than their ranking suggests, as they do not have any remaining ranked opponents, and are at risk of being taken over by teams below them with stronger schedules according to the committee. They need to avoid the scenario of Alabama winning the SEC as the Tide losing would open up a spot for the Bearcats. 

Cincinnati will be jumped by Oklahoma if the Sooners win out as the Sooners have two top 13 opponents remaining in the regular season, plus the Big 12 Championship. 

With Cincinnati already behind three one loss teams, they could be jumped by one loss Oklahoma State by season's end. The Cowboys still have the Sooners on the schedule plus the Big 12 title game. Given the committee's perception of one loss Alabama, Oregon, Ohio State having stronger resumes than Cincinnati, the committee may perceive one loss Oklahoma State to have the same by season's end. 

Cincinnati's remaining schedule: 11/12 @ 2-7 South Florida (Line: Cincinnati -23.5), 11/20 vs 7-2 SMU, 11/26 @ 5-4 East Carolina

#6 Michigan-Does not control own destiny

What they need elsewhere

Michigan State loss

Explanation: Michigan is ahead of MSU in this week's rankings, but the Spartans own the tiebreaker in the Big Ten East putting the Spartans in the drivers seat for the Big Ten Championship. Nevertheless, Michigan's path to the playoff is simple. If Michigan State loses one of their remaining games, Michigan controls their own destiny. 

Michigan's remaining schedule: 11/13 @ 6-3 Penn State (Line: EVEN), 11/20 @ 5-4 Maryland, 11/27 vs #4 Ohio State 

#7 Michigan State-Controls own destiny 

Explanation: Yes, Michigan State is behind Michigan in this week's rankings, but I would still rather be a Spartans fan than a Wolverines fan right now. The Spartans own the tiebreaker over Michigan because of the win, and MSU would have a win in the Big Ten Championship to set them apart if they win out. I think Michigan State should already be ahead of Michigan, but this is a pointless discussion. 

Michigan State's remaining schedule: 11/13 vs 5-3 Maryland (Line: Michigan State -13), 11/20 @ #4 8-1 Ohio State, 11/27 vs 6-3 Penn State

#8 Oklahoma-Controls own destiny

Explanation: The Sooners are in FAR better shape than their ranking suggests. Oklahoma is where they are because their current resume is lacking, but that will change by season's end because the Sooners have a backloaded schedule. The Sooners have two top 13 opponents left in the regular season and the Big 12 Championship. There's no reason to believe the committee would keep an undefeated Big 12 champion out.

Oklahoma's remaining schedule: 11/13 @ #13 7-2 Baylor (Line: Oklahoma -5.5), 11/20 vs 6-3 Iowa State

#9 Notre Dame-on life support

What they need elsewhere 

Alabama loss+ Cincinnati loss (possibly two) + Oklahoma loss  + Oklahoma State loss + possibly a Texas A&M loss

Explanation: This is the highest ranked team on the list that has little shot of making the playoff. As you can see above, Notre Dame will need some 2007-like chaos to make the playoff. As you can see below, Notre Dame's remaining schedule does them no favors. A lack of a conference championship game works against the Irish this year. If anything, Notre Dame is more likely to fall even if they win out. 

Notre Dame's remaining schedule: 11/13 @ 6-3 Virginia (Line: Notre Dame -5.5), 11/20 vs 3-6 Georgia Tech, 11/27 @ 3-6 Stanford 

#10 Oklahoma State-Does not control own destiny

What they need elsewhere

Alabama loss OR an Oregon loss + the committee judging them as stronger than Cincinnati 

Explanation: Oklahoma State only needs one of two things to happen if they win out, so chalk up the Cowboys as another team in better positioning than their ranking. Only one of the three Big Ten teams will finish ahead of the Cowboys, they'll jump Oklahoma and Notre Dame, and likely Cincinnati. 

The first scenario is the SEC not having two teams in the playoff which opens up the fourth spot for the Cowboys. Only one of the three Big Ten teams will finish ahead of the Cowboys, they'll jump Oklahoma + Notre Dame, and possibly Cincinnati. 

The second scenario is Oregon losing. Oklahoma State probably won't jump Oregon if both teams win out, as the Ducks will have the best win between the two programs. 

See the explanation for #5 Cincinnati on a potential UC-OKST controversy

Oklahoma State's remaining schedule: 11/13 vs 4-5 TCU (Line: Oklahoma State -13), 11/20 @ 5-4 Texas Tech, 11/27 vs #8 9-0 Oklahoma 

#11 Texas A&M-On life support

What they need elsewhere

Alabama to lose vs Arkansas or Auburn + Oregon loss + Oklahoma loss + Oklahoma State loss + a reversal of recent history

Explanation: We've taken a trip to crazy town if we're seriously discussing A&M as a playoff team. They need Alabama to lose a regular season game, need to beat Georgia, and need other teams mentioned above to lose to even be discussed. Still, it's impossible to not discuss a Texas A&M team with wins vs Alabama & Georgia as a playoff contender. The committee has not selected a two loss team for the playoff (not 2016 Penn State who beat Ohio State that year over OSU, not 2017 Ohio State over one loss non-champion Alabama). All this said, the Aggies' hopes may already be dead, but it won't stop people from talking about them.

Texas A&M's remaining schedule: 11/13 @ #15 7-2 Ole Miss (Line: Texas A&M -2.5), 11/20 vs 7-1 Prairie View A&M (FCS), 11/27 @ 4-5 LSU

#12 Wake Forest-On life support

What they need elsewhere

Alabama loss + Oregon loss + Oklahoma loss + Oklahoma State loss + Cincinnati loss + Texas A&M loss + possibly a Notre Dame loss 

Explanation: The Demon Deacons needing six or seven to lose speaks for itself. 

Wake Forest's remaining schedule: 11/13 vs #16 7-2 NC State (Line: Wake Forest -2), 11/20 @ 6-3 Clemson, 11/27 @ 5-4 Boston College 

This guide will be updated following next week's rankings