Overrated? Underrated? Preseason edition

by Murphy Horning

#1 Alabama

The Tide does lose eight offensive starters including QB Mac Jones, two NFL wide receivers including Heisman winning WR DeVonta Smith, and three starting offensive linemen. The defense returns eight starters and should be stronger than last year. This Alabama team is supremely talented as they have 2021's #1 recruiting class. 

'Bama is a logical choice for #1 as they are the reigning national champs. The Tide only has one national title in the five times they've been ranked #1 under Nick Saban. They did lose a lot on offense, but Alabama (and incoming QB Bryce Young) more than deserves the benefit of the doubt. This team is surely a title contender, but because of the inexperienced offense, it's too early to rank the Tide #1. Overrated

#2 Oklahoma

The Sooners have Heisman favorite Spencer Rattler as their starting QB, and return their top three wide receivers on offense.  Alex Grinch's Sooners defense was statistically slightly better than Alabama's last year, and they return eight starters on this side of the ball. There's tons of proven talent on the 2021 Sooners.

Yes, the Sooners are 0-4 in College Football Playoff games and 0-3 under Lincoln Riley, but unlike Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray, Spencer Rattler and the Sooners offense has a strong defense to compliment them. This is a more complete team than the four Sooners teams who were bounced in the CFP Semifinals, and the most complete team in college football. Underrated 

#3 Clemson

The Tigers lose Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne and their top three pass catchers, but starting QB D.J. Uiagalelei was dynamite in his two starts last year (5 TD, 0 INT, 914 yds). The Tigers defense was 15th in 2020 and will be one of the best units in the country in 2021 as Brent Venables' unit returns nine starters. There's a few question marks on offense aside from Uiagalelei, but the Tigers are contenders like usual.

Clemson will be a great team in 2021 as there shouldn't be much of a learning curve for D.J Uiagalelei. The O-line and run game are a question mark, but the defense is strong. There's no reason to believe the Tigers aren't national championship contenders once again. Properly rated

#4 Ohio State

The Buckeyes lose Justin Fields, but C.J. Stroud shouldn't have trouble settling in with arguably the best WR unit in America (led by Olave and Wilson) plus one of the best offensive lines. On defense, OSU's D-line looks dominant with Jack Sawyer and J.T. Tuimoloau, but the back 7  (especially linebacker, with zero returning starters) is inexperienced and is a major question mark for the 2021 Buckeyes.

There's some causes for concern with Ohio State's defense as the linebackers and secondary look inexperienced, but the Buckeyes offense has plenty of pieces around C.J. Stroud. Nevertheless, Stroud hasn't thrown a collegiate pass. More needs to be seen from the back 7 and Stroud, but the Buckeyes should be double-digit favorites in every game, and are heavy playoff favorites. Properly rated

#5 Georgia

As J.T. Daniels went last year, so went the Bulldogs. They averaged 29 points in 6 games without him at QB, and averaged 37 with him, and he's back this year. Not to mention, their running game led by Zamir White is experienced, and they return almost their entire pass-catching unit (top 7 guys are back). Georgia's defense returns five starters, with more experience in the front 7.

Georgia's offense if J.T. Daniels stays healthy will be one of the best units in the country with essentially all of the skill players back. Georgia's defense was 12th last year and look strong this year upfront, but can the secondary improve? Other than the secondary, there's no real weakness for the 2021 Bulldogs. On paper this team looks better than Alabama, and will be favored in 11 games. Underrated 

#6 Texas A&M

After losing Kellen Mond, there's a QB competition in College Station between last year's backup Haynes King and the man behind him Zach Calzada. The offensive line only returns one, but the Aggies return their top runners and pass catchers. A&M's defense looks like their strongest unit as they were ninth in the country in 2020, an the Aggies return nine players on that side of the ball.

Sure, there will be a new QB at Texas A&M in 2021 and four new O-linemen, but this is a deep, experienced team at other offensive positions and for the Aggies entire defense. Even better for Texas A&M, they get Alabama at home on October 9th, and they have the talent to compete with the Tide. Make no mistake, the Aggies are playoff and title contenders. Properly rated 

#7 Iowa State

Everyone is back for the Cyclones on offense, including QB Brock Purdy and RB Breece Hall, who rushed for 1572 yards last year. There's no reason to believe either Purdy or Hall will regress in 2021. Iowa State's defense was better than Oklahoma's last year (21st compared to 29th for the Sooners), they return nine players and all defensive units look strong.

There's a lot to love about Matt Campbell's Iowa State team, as he has taken the Cyclone from three wins in 2016 to nine last year, and he hopes it culminates in a playoff appearance this year. The Cyclones should be favored in 11 of 12 games. They play @ Oklahoma on November 20th and will likely see them again in the Big 12 title game. Are the Cyclones great enough to knock off the Sooners? Properly rated

#8 Cincinnati

The Bearcats offense returns seven starters, including dual threat QB Desmond Ridder, four of their top five pass catchers and three offensive linemen. On defense, the Bearcats also return seven starters, including two outstanding cornerbacks with first team All-American Ahmad Gardner and first team all-AAC corner Coby Bryant. 

If a group of 5 team is going to make the playoff, this is the year and the Bearcats are the team to accomplish that. They have the needed resume building games with a trip to Bloomington to face the Hoosiers on Sep 18, and in South Bend against Notre Dame on Oct 2. They nearly knocked off Georgia last year, and can't be much worse this year. Properly rated 

#9 Notre Dame

Notre Dame loses QB Ian Book, and he is replaced by Wisconsin transfer Jack Coan. They only return three starters on offense, which included 1100 yard rusher Kyren Williams. The defense returns six starters, and the Irish have a new Defensive Coordinator in Marcus Freeman from Cincinnati who has done a good job (they face the Bearcats on October 2). 

The Irish lose three offensive linemen and a QB so Notre Dame's offense doesn't look great on paper before the season. The defense should be stronger with six back. The back-to-back vs Wisconsin in Chicago on Sep 25th and the home game vs Cincy on Oct 2 will determine the course of ND's season. Notre Dame should be favored in at least 10 games, but ninth is too high given the offense. Overrated

#10 North Carolina

QB Sam Howell is back, and he was fourth in passing yards in 2020. The Tar Heels return eight on offense, including all five offensive linemen. The Heels do replace their top two rushers and pass catchers. North Carolina's defense slipped last year, giving up 29 PPG, but the Tar Heels return 10 players on that side of the ball. 

The offense should have few problems in 2021 with Sam Howell (one of the best QB's in the country) and five offensive linemen back. How much the defense improves will determine how far the Tar Heels go. They get Miami at home on Oct 16 and go to Notre Dame on Oct 30. They should be favored in 11 of 12 games, and I'd flip them ahead of Notre Dame. Underrated

#11 Oregon

The Ducks have a new QB in Boston College transfer Anthony Brown, but Brown has plenty to work with as Oregon has their top two pass catchers and rushers back. The defense returns seven, including second team All-American defensive lineman Kayvon Thibodeaux. The Ducks had a -14 turnover rate last year, and fixing that will be key to how far the Ducks go.

Oregon went 4-3 last year, and probably would have won more with less turnovers. Oregon has a new quarterback in Anthony Brown but with lots of talent around him, and one of the best defenders in the country with Thibodeaux. Oregon has Ohio State, Stanford, Washington and Utah on the road, but this is a talented team. Properly rated

#12 Wisconsin

Graham Mertz had five touchdowns in his first game vs Illinois last year, but only threw four TD's and five picks in remaining games. The Badgers usually stout run game only averaged 3.9 YPC last year. The defense was fifth in the country last year and the Badgers return eight defensively. 

Can Mertz be consistent and can the Badgers find a worthy replacement to Jonathan Taylor? If either of those things happen, the Badgers will be a threat Ohio State in the B1G Championship because Wisconsin has one of the best defenses in America. Wisconsin will be favored in 11 of 12 games (Notre Dame looks to be a tossup). This is a dark horse playoff contender. Underrated

#13 Florida

The Gators only have five returning offensive starters and lose Kyle Trask, who threw for 43 TD's and just 6 INT's last year and their top three wide receivers. Florida's defense, which gave up 31 PPG last year (their worst since 1917), only returns five starters. 

It's difficult to see what the pollsters love about the Gators. They lost their last three games in 2020, do not return Kyle Trask, struggled on defense which is inexperienced in 2021. They have two tough crossover games vs Alabama on Sep 18 and at LSU on Oct 16. They should win the other nine games, but the Gators are...Overrated

#14 Miami (FL)

D'Eriq King, who transferred from Houston last year is back at QB, and the Canes hope he can regain full strength after a torn ACL in the Cheez-It Bowl last year. The offense returns 10 starters so that unit is strong. The defense averaged 22 PPG in their first nine games, but gave up 49 PPG in the final two games vs UNC and OKST. That unit returns nine.

The Canes went 8-3 in 2020 and look better on paper in 2021. This looks to be Manny Diaz's best team and the Canes are one of the two best teams in the Coastal Division. They do draw Alabama in non-conference and have North Carolina on the road, but avoid Clemson and should be favored in 10 games. Underrated

#15 USC

QB Kedon Slovis is back, as he is one of eight returning offensive starters. USC had their worst rushing attack in 19 years in 2020, so that needs to improve. The Trojans have eight returning starters on defense, and should be one of the stronger units in the Pac 12.

The Trojans aren't a flashy team, and struggled against mediocre teams last year, as they had three one score wins vs .500 or losing teams. USC does have weak schedule avoiding Oregon and Washington. Their ranking will rise later in the year with , meaning the Trojans are slightly...Underrated 

#16 LSU

There was a QB race in Baton Rouge until Myles Brennan was injured and needed arm surgery, meaning Max Johnson will be starting for LSU. The Tigers return nine on both offense and defense. Bo Pelini's defense gave up 35 PPG last year, and the only way is up for that unit.

LSU will be better in 2021 after winning their last two games and having 20 of 22 starters back. They're the third best team in their division, but solid nonetheless. Properly rated

#17 Indiana

Michael Penix is back from a torn ACL, and he has four of his top five pass catchers from 2020 in 2021 including All-American WR Ty Fryfogle. Indiana had their best defense since 1993 last year, and return nine including All-American LB Micah McFadden.

On paper this is the best team Indiana's ever had. The burning question is whether Michael Penix can stay healthy. The Hoosiers have a tough schedule with Cincy and OSU at home, and road games at Iowa and Notre Dame. Indiana is more talented than their rank, but the schedule makes them Properly rated

#18 Iowa

Iowa's offense returns seven starters including All-American center Tyler Linderbaum, and all-B1G runningback Tyler Goodson. Iowa's defense has allowed 25 points or less in 22 straight games, and that unit returns seven. The secondary look strong, returning 2nd team all-B1G safety Jack Koerner, and 3rd team all-BIG CB Riley Moss

Iowa went 6-2 in 2020 winning their final six games. They look solid at quarterback, running game and defense. They do have two tough crossover games vs Indiana and PSU at home, and the rivalry game vs Iowa State. Iowa is good enough to win ten games, but the schedule is tough. Properly rated

#19 Penn State

The Nittany Lions have their top skill players back with QB Sean Clifford, RB Noah Cain who was injured last season, and WR Jahan Dotson. The defense gave up 36 points in their first five games last year (all losses) and 17 in their final four games (all win). The Lions D returns seven.

Penn State's 4-5 record last year is misleading, as they outgained Indiana and Nebraska by 200 yards in losses last year. They have two tough crossover games at Iowa and Wisconsin, but this team is talented enough to win 10 games. Underrated

#20 Washington

The Huskies return 10 offensive starters, including quarterback Dylan Morris. That unit improved to 30 points a game last year and should be better. The defense returns eight, and the secondary has five with starting experience, making that Washington's strongest unit.

Washington went 3-1 last year, which is a low sample size but given the returning production they should win a lot of games. Not to mention the Huskies will be favored in at least 10 games (maybe 11 if they're favored @ Michigan) and should win at least 10 games. Underrated

#21 Texas

The Longhorns lose QB Sam Ehlinger but do return eight on offense including leading rusher Bijan Robinson. Texas returns seven defensive starters and their top two tacklers, but depth is a concern with them losing their top 3-5 tacklers. 

New year, new coach in Austin as Steve Sarkisian replaces Tom Herman. The quarterback race isn't settled yet, and the defense does have some depth. It's hard to assess how good the Longhorns are, and given their track record, I'll mark the Horns as Overrated

#22 Coastal Carolina

Grayson McCall (26 touchdowns, 3 picks) is back at QB with him being one of nine offensive starters. The defense had 34 sacks allowing 20 PPG last year and returns 10 starters.

On paper, there's no reason to think the Chanticleers can't duplicate last year's 11-1 finish. Their non conference Power 5 game is at home vs lowly Kansas, and avoid Louisiana-Lafayette out of the Sun Belt West. App State is the tough game in the East. They have a good chance to finish undefeated, meaning they'll rise as the season goes on. Underrated

#23 Louisiana-Lafayette

20 of 22 starters are back for the Ragin' Cajuns in 2021. On offense their pass games looks strong as quarterback Levi Lewis is back along with the top five pass catchers. The Cajuns defense returns their top 13 tacklers.

Like Coastal, there's no reason to think the Cajuns can't duplicate last year's 10-1 finish. They do have a tougher Power 5 game vs Texas, and have Appalachian State in the East. If Louisiana can get by Texas (looks like the Horns will be slight favorites) they'll rise. For now, #23 looks like a good spot. Properly rated

#24 Utah

The Utes dealt with a tragic loss in the offseason with the untimely death of RB Ty Jordan this summer. Not to make light of that, but the Utes did lose their leading rusher and passer from 2020, but return everyone else. The defense returns nine starters.

The Utes went 3-2 last year, taking their final three games in 2020. Their defense looks like the strongest unit on the team, and one of the better units in the country. Can their offense stand out? The Utes will be underdogs in only one game, making them....Underrated

#25 Arizona State

The Sun Devils will be a stronger team this year, as nine offensive starters are back, including QB Jayden Daniels, three O-linemen (they add Tristin Miller from UNC). The defense allowed 23 PPG last year and all 11 starters are back.

It's hard to assess how good ASU really is, because they only played four games going 2-2. They do have to travel to BYU on Sep 18 and Washington on Nov 13. Based on the schedule though, ASU should win nine or 10 games, making them....Properly rated.