All you need to know about the CFP race: Week 13

PLAYOFF

Status Changes for Week 13 (here's last week's guide for reference)

Michigan State: Controls own destiny to Eliminated

Oregon: Controls own destiny to Eliminated

Wake Forest: On life support to Eliminated

Cincinnati: Doesn't control own destiny to Controls own destiny

Michigan: Doesn't control own destiny to Controls own destiny

The biggest winner of Week 12 is Cincinnati. The Bearcats are finally in the Top 4 (three weeks overdue many would say) and now control their own destiny for the CFP. Oregon and Michigan State getting blown out turned heads in the college football world, and had significant impact on the playoff race. Suddenly, Notre Dame appears to be one break away (more on that later) for the College Football Playoff. Here is a breakdown of the playoff chase for each team in the race. 

#1 Georgia: Controls own destiny

Alabama winning the SEC West will be the last significant thing that happens to Georgia in the regular season as that ensures a Bulldogs-Crimson Tide SEC Title game. UGA is a 35 point favorite this weekend vs 3-8 Georgia Tech. Unless the Yellow Jackets pull the upset of the decade on Saturday, Georgia is in the playoff regardless of what happens vs Alabama. 

#2 Ohio State: Controls own destiny

Week 13 is just the way it should be: It's #2 Ohio State @ #5 Michigan for all the marbles in the Big Ten East this weekend. Suddenly, the Buckeyes look primed for an in state playoff matchup vs the Bearcats if Alabama loses. Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota are still alive to face OSU in the Big Ten Title game.

#3 Alabama: Controls own destiny

Alabama's close win vs Arkansas played a role in the Tide falling to 3rd, but Alabama clinched a West title with the win. The highly anticipated 'Bama-Georgia clash will happen the first Saturday of December.  Alabama is a 19.5 point favorite at Auburn this weekend. 'Bama needs to win their last two games to get in.

#4 Cincinnati: Controls own destiny

Week 12 was arguably the best weekend in the program's history. The Bearcats blew out an 8-3 SMU team 48-14, and got the break they needed with Oregon losing. It is unlikely the Bearcats will be jumped by Oklahoma State or Oklahoma, let alone Notre Dame. Cincinnati will likely move up to third if Alabama loses to Georgia. Cincy has a solid remaining two games, the 'Cats are two touchdown favorites @ 7-4 East Carolina, and play 10-1 #24 Houston in the AAC title game. 

#5 Michigan

See Ohio State. Everything is at stake this weekend.

#6 Notre Dame: Doesn't control own destiny

What they need elsewhere: An Alabama loss + the committee's judging them as better than Oklahoma or Oklahoma State

Notre Dame was a fringe playoff contender until Oklahoma and Oregon lost. Suddenly, Notre Dame may only be an Alabama loss away from sneaking into the playoff. The burning question about Notre Dame's playoff hopes is will they be jumped by an Oklahoma or Oklahoma State team that wins out? The committee isn't high on either of those two teams, so it's possible Notre Dame is in even if those two teams win out. Also, Notre Dame fans need to root for a close game in the Bedlam Bowl this weekend, as margins matter. If the game is close, the committee may not put either team over Notre Dame.

#7 Oklahoma State: Doesn't control own destiny

What they need elsewhere: Alabama loss + Probably a Cincinnati loss + the committee judging them as better than Notre Dame

A win against Oklahoma this weekend will be solid, but possibly not good enough to jump teams above them. One should anticipate Oklahoma to fall considerably if Oklahoma State wins this weekend, which means a win might not be good enough to consider the Cowboys over Notre Dame. That is a decision that could go either way if both teams win out. Strength of schedule will indicate Oklahoma State should be ahead, but money and the strength of Notre Dame's brand may win out in the end. Keep in mind the committee currently views Notre Dame as stronger than Ok St. Cowboys fans should root for a close game for Notre Dame at Stanford. Again, margin of victory makes a difference.

#10 Oklahoma: On life support

What they need elsewhere: Alabama loss + Cincinnati loss + the committee judging them as better than Notre Dame

The committee has been harsh on Oklahoma. Will that change if they beat Oklahoma State and Oklahoma State again or Baylor in the Big 12 title game? The Sooners being behind two two-loss teams indicated it may not be enough. Largely the same situation as their Bedlam Bowl competitors, but bleaker. The Sooners are four point underdogs vs the Cowboys on Saturday night.