Where does each team in the CFP race stand?

CFP Status changes for Week 12 (See last week's guide for reference)

Oregon: moves from doesn't control own destiny up to controls own destiny 
Notre Dame: moves from on life support up to doesn't control own destiny 
Oklahoma: moves from controls own destiny down to on life support
Texas A&M: moves from on life support down to eliminated 

Texas A&M lost to Ole Miss, so whatever miracle playoff chance they had is gone. Oklahoma's loss makes things easier for teams on the outside looking in, especially Oregon who now controls their own destiny. Even for teams who's statuses I didn't change, their playoff chances went up after the Sooners defeat to Baylor last week. For the team capsules below, I will show the status of each team, and if their playoff chances went up, down or unchanged after week 11. Without further ado, here's the guide for each team remaining in the playoff race

#1 Georgia: controls own destiny

Playoff chances: Unchanged

Georgia beat Tennessee 41-17, leaving Georgia's standing the same. Unless the Bulldogs get stunned the next two weeks, UGA will be in regardless of what happens in the SEC Championship Game. Georgia is widely viewed as the best team in the country right now, and they are in the best shape playoff wise. 

Remaining schedule: 11/20 vs (FCS) 4-5 Charleston Southern, 11/27 @ 3-7 Georgia Tech, 12/4 SEC Championship Game 

#2 Alabama: controls own destiny

Playoff chances: unchanged

Alabama won their annual "Chickenshit Saturday" game 59-3 vs 1-9 New Mexico State. There was as much drama in that game as their was with the Tide's playoff chances in Week 11. Alabama wins out and their in, but unlike Georgia, they're eliminated with one more loss. An Alabama win this week would clinch an SEC West title (a showdown vs Georgia).  

Remaining schedule: 11/20 vs #21 7-3 Arkansas, 11/27 @ 6-4 Auburn

#3 Oregon: controls own destiny

Playoff chances: Up

Oklahoma's loss was huge for Oregon, as the Ducks aren't at risk of being jumped by Oklahoma (probably Oklahoma State as well). The Ducks also don't have to worry about two SEC teams getting into the playoff with this cushion. Oregon has a cushion at #3, so even if they are jumped by a Big Ten champion, they will only fall from third to fourth. A lot of teams benefitted from the Sooners defeat to the Bears, with Oregon being the greatest beneficiary. A win at #23 Utah this week would clinch a berth in the PAC 12 title game.

Remaining schedule: 11/20 @ #23 7-3 Utah, 11/27 vs 6-4 Oregon State

#4 Ohio State: controls own destiny 

Playoff chances: unchanged

Ohio State blew out then #19 Purdue 59-31, which keeps them very much alive in the CFP chase. The Buckeyes have arguably the best schedule going forward, with two top 10 games, and likely at top 15 matchup vs Wisconsin in the B1G title game if OSU gets that far. The only way is up for Ohio State if they win out. Ohio State-Michigan State is a CFP elimination game. 

Remaining schedule: 11/20 vs #7 9-1 Michigan State, 11/27 @ #6 9-1 Michigan

#5 Cincinnati: does not control own destiny

Playoff chances: up

What they need elsewhere: Alabama OR Oregon loss + Maybe an Oklahoma State loss 

Oklahoma's loss was also huge for Cincinnati. The Bearcats likely only need one break elsewhere if they win out. With the Sooners eight spots behind Cincinnati, it is unlikely the Sooners would jump the Bearcats if both win out, as the Sooners remaining schedule is strong, but not extraordinary. Cincinnati is less likely to be jumped by #9 Oklahoma State, as the Sooners losing means the Cowboys resume won't look as strong if OK St wins out. Assuming no one jumps Cincy from below, all the Bearcats need is a loss by Alabama or Oregon. Houston being ranked 24th helps the Bearcats resume, as they would play in the AAC Championship. Cincinnati needs one more win to clinch an AAC title game.

Remaining schedule: 11/20 vs 8-2 SMU, 11/26 @ 6-4 East Carolina

#6 Michigan: does not control own destiny

Playoff chances: unchanged

What they need elsewhere: Michigan State loss

Michigan being ahead of Michigan State after losing to them just weeks prior does raise credibility questions about the committee, but has no substantive impact on the rest of the race. MSU owns the tiebreaker for the B1G East, meaning the Wolverines still need the Spartans to lose. Yes, Michigan fans, you're Buckeyes fans on Saturday.

Remaining schedule: 11/20 @ 5-5 Maryland, 11/27 vs #4 9-1 Ohio State

#7 Michigan State: controls own destiny

Playoff chances: unchanged

If the Spartans win out, they're in the College Football Playoff. MSU has an elimination game @ #4 Ohio State this Saturday. 

Remaining schedule: 11/20 @ #4 9-1 Ohio State, 11/27 vs 6-4 Penn State 

#8 Notre Dame: doesn't control own destiny

Playoff chances: up

What they need elsewhere: At least one Cincinnati loss + Alabama OR Oregon loss + probably an Oklahoma State loss

Oklahoma and Texas A&M losing removes threats from below, which certainly helps Notre Dame. Still, one Cincinnati loss is no guarantee of the Irish jumping them, and they'd still need Alabama or Oregon to lose. The Irish also have to be mindful of #9 Oklahoma State who has Oklahoma and a Big 12 title game remaining if they beat the Sooners. Those two games are far better than anything left on Notre Dame's schedule. Things look better for Notre Dame, but they still need a ton to get in. I rate them above on life support because a team ranked ninth this late has made the playoff, and ND is eighth. 

Remaining schedule: 11/20 vs 3-7 Georgia Tech, 11/27 @ 3-7 Stanford

#9 Oklahoma State: doesn't control own destiny

Playoff chances: down

What they need elsewhere: Alabama OR Oregon loss + probably a Cincinnati loss + possibly a judgement call over Notre Dame

Ironically, the rival Sooners loss to Baylor hurts the Cowboys playoff chances. Their loss hurts Oklahoma State's strength of schedule which makes the Cowboys less likely to jump teams above them, particularly Cincinnati. Other than that, nothing the Cowboys need seems implausible, as they are rooting for Georgia to win out. Oklahoma State will probably jump Notre Dame, as the Cowboys remaining strength of schedule is far better than Notre Dame's. I'd rather be the Cowboys than the Irish right now. Two more wins and Ok St is in the Big 12 Championship.

Remaining schedule: 11/20 @ 6-4 Texas Tech, 11/27 vs #13 9-1 Oklahoma

#10 Wake Forest: on life support

Playoff chances: up

What they need elsewhere: Oklahoma State loss + Cincinnati loss + Oregon loss + their resume being valued more than two loss Big Ten teams

Wake Forest is in better, but still dire, shape after a ranked win vs NC State plus Oklahoma and Texas A&M losing. The three teams above losing, plus another Alabama loss is no guarantee of the Demon Deacons jumping ahead of the Tide or Michigan, MSU or Ohio State for that matter. Essentially, the Demon Deacons playoff hopes went from being a bizarre pipe dream to a pipe dream. One more win and Wake Forest is in the ACC Championship. 

Remaining schedule: 11/20 @ 7-3 Clemson, 11/27 @ 6-4 Boston College

#13 Oklahoma: on life support

Playoff chances: off a cliff

What they need elsewhere: Alabama loss + Oregon loss + Cincinnati loss + possibly a Notre Dame loss + possibly a Wake Forest loss + favorable judgments by the committee

The committee has always been low on the Sooners. Even when they were undefeated last week, they were ranked eighth. The Sooners are behind two loss Ole Miss who has next to no shot at the playoff, which speaks to how the committee views the Sooners. Oklahoma has a solid remaining schedule, but will it be enough?

Remaining schedule: 11/20 vs 6-4 Iowa State, 11/27 @ #9 9-1 Oklahoma State