Ohio State-Minnesota preview

by Murphy Horning

Storylines
This is the first meeting between the Buckeyes and Gophers since 2018, and OSU's first trip to Minneapolis since 2014. Ohio State leads the all time series 46-7-0 against Minnesota in 53 meetings (of which Ohio State has won the last 11, including the vacated 2010 victory). The Gophers haven't beaten the Buckeyes since 2000, and haven't won against Ohio State in Minneapolis since 1981. 

Ohio State is once again heavily favored to win the Big Ten, plus heavy favorites to get to the College Football Playoff for the 3rd year in a row. On offense, the Buckeyes are strong all over (strongest at O-line and wide receiver) and have a new starting quarterback in redshirt freshman C.J. Stroud. On defense, the Buckeyes front four is strong, but the back 7 (especially in the secondary) is a question mark.

Minnesota went 3-4 last year in Big Ten play, a drop-off from the Gophers 11-2 season in 2019. The Gophers hope to get back to relevance in the Big Ten West race. On offense, the Gophers return 10 starters, including all-B1G running back Mohamed Ibrahim. On defense, the Gophers slipped in 2020, giving up 30 points per game last year compared to 22 PPG in 2019. That unit returns 10 starters. 

When Buckeyes run
You can expect Master Teague, Miyan Williams and TreVeyon Henderson to all get carries at the beginning of the year, and it will be interesting to see who emerges as the feature back. Whoever gets the most carries will run behind one of the best offensive lines in the country including preseason all-B1G offensive linemen Thayer Munford and Nicholas Petit-Frere. All this said, the Buckeyes should have success running vs the Gophers, as Minnesota had the third worst rushing D in the Big Ten in 2020. 

When Buckeyes pass
Like any quarterback at Ohio State, there are high expectations for redshirt freshman C.J. Stroud. Stroud hasn't thrown a collegiate pass but spent a year practicing in Ryan Day's offense. Ohio State has arguably the best WR unit in America led by Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson, which makes one think Stroud shouldn't have trouble settling in. Minnesota returns three starters in the secondary which should be solid, the only loss being CB Benjamin St. Juste. The Gophers pass defense was sixth best in the B1G last year.

When Gophers run
2020 Big Ten Runningback of the Year Mohamed Ibrahim leads Minnesota's run game. The Gophers o-line returns all five starters, including 6'9" 400 pound right tackle Daniel Faalele and RG Curtis Dunlap who missed the 2020 season. Ohio State's defensive line is by far their strongest unit defensively, and the battle upfront between the strong Gophers O-line and strong Buckeyes D-line will be the most critical battle of the game especially with Ohio State's inexperience at LB and in the secondary.

When Gophers pass
The Gophers pass unit is led by Senior QB Tanner Morgan, who threw for 7 TD's and 5 picks last year, but hopes to get back to his 2019 level when he threw for 30 TD's and only 7 picks. The Gophers leading WR Rashod Bateman is gone to the NFL, so expect Chris Autman-Bell and Daniel Jackson to emerge as Morgan's first and second targets. Morgan will be throwing against 2020's worst pass defense, an Ohio State unit where Sevyn Banks and Josh Proctor will play a big role, but little else is certain. 

Special teams
Both teams have new kickers and punters. The Buckeyes add UNC graduate transfer Noah Ruggles as placekicker, and freshman Jesse Mirco as punter. The Gophers add Kent State transfer (and 2019 MAC special teamer of the year) Matthew Trickett as kicker, and freshman Mark Crawford is projected to punt. 

Summary
Ohio State's offense looks solid both running and passing, but it should be a better night for OSU running the ball, as Minnesota had 2020's third worst rush defense in the Big Ten (their pass defense was sixth best in the conference). The biggest battle of the game will be the Gophers O-line vs the Buckeyes D-line. The only way the Gophers have a shot to shock the Buckeyes is if the Gophers win the battle upfront. If Minnesota's offensive line can win the battle upfront on offense, and if their solid secondary can force mistakes from Stroud, the Gophers have a good chance at the upset. If C.J. Stroud gets off to a fast start and has few growing pains early on and Ohio State's D-line wins the battle upfront, it should be a blowout win for the Buckeyes. 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Guide to the CFP chase

Who I'd like to be based on playoff scenarios Teams who control their own destiny #1 Georgia #2 Alabama #3 Ohio State #4 Oklahoma #5 Michigan State Teams who don't quite control their own destiny, but likely in if they win out #6 Oregon #7 Michigan Team who don't control their own destiny, but will get in with some help  #8 Oklahoma State #9 Cincinnati Teams still "alive" but on life support  #10 Texas A&M #11 Notre Dame #12 Wake Forest #1 Georgia- Controls own destiny Explanation:   Barring a stunning loss for the Bulldogs in their last three regular season games, Georgia will be in the playoff regardless of what happens in the SEC Championship Game. Two SEC teams will likely make the playoff if Georgia loses the SEC title game to Alabama. There won't be any controversies about the Bulldogs unless they get shocked in the next three weeks. There is no way Georgia wins out and doesn't finish #1.  Georgia's remaining schedule:  11/13 @ 4-5 Tennessee
Read more

What's wrong with Ohio State?

After a 35-28 loss to Oregon on September 11th, a 41-20 win against Tulsa did little to calm the nerves of Buckeye fans. To be sure, Ohio State's performance against the Golden Hurricane won't cut it against teams like Penn State, Michigan or Iowa if the Buckeyes get that far. That being said, here's the three biggest reasons Ohio State has struggled the first three games.  Lack of progression from C.J. Stroud Stroud has shown signs of brilliance. He threw for four touchdowns in his debut at Minnesota, and 484 yards vs Oregon, but there are some troubling trends. There hasn't been any notable progression from Stroud, as his quarterback rating has declined in each of the last three games. A lot Stroud's problems, namely overthrowing open receivers and being too tentative when rolling outside the pocket are normal problems for young QBs, but there hasn't been any noticeable improvement. It is worth noting that Tulsa dropped eight back in coverage, which makes thin
Read more

All you need to know about the CFP race: Week 13

PLAYOFF Status Changes for Week 13 (here's last week's guide for reference) Michigan State: Controls own destiny to Eliminated Oregon: Controls own destiny to Eliminated Wake Forest: On life support to Eliminated Cincinnati: Doesn't control own destiny to Controls own destiny Michigan: Doesn't control own destiny to Controls own destiny The biggest winner of Week 12 is Cincinnati. The Bearcats are finally in the Top 4 (three weeks overdue many would say) and now control their own destiny for the CFP. Oregon and Michigan State getting blown out turned heads in the college football world, and had significant impact on the playoff race. Suddenly, Notre Dame appears to be one break away (more on that later) for the College Football Playoff. Here is a breakdown of the playoff chase for each team in the race.  #1 Georgia: Controls own destiny Alabama winning the SEC West will be the last significant thing that happens to Georgia in the regular season as that ensures a Bulldo
Read more