Ohio State-Rutgers preview

by Murphy Horning

#11 Ohio State (3-1) @ Rutgers (3-1), Saturday 10/2 at 3:30 PM on Big Ten Network, at SHI Stadium in Piscataway, NJ

Storylines

This is the eighth matchup between Ohio State and Rutgers since the latter began Big Ten play in 2014. The Buckeyes are 7-0 in the series, and none of the matchups have been close. The closest matchup was last year, a game Ohio State won 49-27 at home vs the Scarlet Knights. 

Ohio State had problems in their first three games, which has led to the Buckeyes falling from third to 11th in the AP Poll since after Week 1. After Kyle McCord started vs Akron, and Jack Miller played most of the second half at QB, all indications show C.J. Stroud will be under center for the Buckeyes vs the Scarlet Knights in Week 5. 

Rutgers has had a solid start under Greg Schiano in 2021, as the Scarlet Knights went 3-0 in non-conference play, and gave #19 Michigan a run for their money in Ann Arbor, as Rutgers lost 20-13. The Scarlet Knights boast the country's sixth best scoring defense, and Rutgers has eight takeaways and only one turnover.

When Buckeyes run

Ohio State is second in the country in yards per carry, with 6.7 YPC. One should expect OSU to ride TreVeyon Henderson against Rutgers, as he is averaging 9.5 YPC and already has six rushing touchdowns.  Miyan Williams and Master Teague have been solid as well, averaging 7.8 and 5.8 YPC respectively. Rutgers is strong against the run, as the Knights give up only 2.8 YPC, 17th best in the country. The Knights allowed just 2.9 YPC against Michigan, who is the fifth best rushing attack in America. 

When Buckeyes pass

Valid questions are raised about Stroud's decision making and accuracy, but OSU is sixth in yards per pass and 11th in yards per game. Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave and Jackson Smith-Njigba each have three receiving TD's. Rutgers is strong against the pass as well, as the Scarlet Knights allow the sixth lowest completion percentage in the country, and allow 167 pass yards a game which is the 18th lowest mark in college football. 

When Scarlet Knights run

You can expect a heavy rushing game for Rutgers, as their run play percentage ranks 29th, and run plays per game is 14th in the land (they run on 59 percent of plays). The Knights average 3.5 YPC, only 89th in the country. Rutgers' leading rusher is Isaih Pacheco, with 259 yds and three touchdowns. Kyle Monagai has three rushing TD's, another RB Aaron Young has two along with backup QB Johnny Langan. Ohio State's defensive YPC is 68th in the country. It's been a tale of two sets of games for Ohio State, after giving up 200+ yards on the ground vs Minnesota and Oregon, but just 73 and 76 yards vs Tulsa and Akron. Which rushing D will show up for OSU this week?

When Scarlet Knights pass

Rutgers' passing numbers don't jump off the page. They throw for 149 YPG, which is 112th in college football. Noah Vedral has done a solid job for the Scarlet Knights at QB, as he completes 68 percent of his passes, with five passing TD's and no interceptions. The biggest individual matchup of the game is Rutgers WR Bo Melton vs Ohio State CB's Sevyn Banks and Denzel Burke, as Melton is fourth in the B1G in receptions and 10th in receiving yards. Ohio State has given up a lot of passing yards this year, giving up 256 a game, which ranks 91st among passing defenses.

How will the game play out? 

Rutgers should follow the same defensive game plan they had against Michigan last week. Stop the run, and make C.J. Stroud beat them throwing the ball. Although this is different because OSU's pass game is comparatively stronger than Michigan's, the Buckeyes run game looks to be the stronger offensive unit for Ohio State. When the Scarlet Knights have the ball, the biggest factor will be how strong Ohio State's run defense is, as the Buckeyes looked weak against the run vs Minnesota and Oregon, and strong against Tulsa and Akron. Bo Melton vs OSU's secondary will be huge, as Melton has more than double the receiving yards of anyone on the team. Situational football will be critical in this game, as Rutgers forces turnovers and doesn't turn the ball over. Ohio State is the more talented team and the oddsmakers recognize that, as the Buckeyes are still favored by 15 points. Nevertheless, this looks to be the strongest Rutgers team Ohio State has faced since 2014.