Big Ten West preview

by Murphy Horning

Wisconsin
Offense: Graham Mertz wowed people with a five touchdown performance in the opener vs Illinois, but he had four TD's and five picks in the remaining games. He's back for 2021. The usually strong Wisconsin run game averaged only 3.9 yards a carry in 2020. Badgers add two freshman RB's plus Clemson transfer Chaz Mellusi. 
Defense: Wisconsin's defense is always good, and last year they were third best in the Big Ten only giving up 17 points per game. This year they return eight starters, including seven of their top eight tacklers. The Badgers may have the strongest defense in the Big Ten, and one of the best in CFB. 
Outlook: The defense will be strong. Can Mertz stay consistent and can the Badgers run the ball in 2021 like they usually do? Wisconsin should be favored in at least 11 games (Notre Dame in Chicago on Sep 25 looks like a tossup). The Badgers are a dark horse playoff contender. Can they finally knock off OSU? 

Iowa

Offense: The Hawkeyes offense returns seven starters, including 2020 all Big Ten runningback Tyler Goodson. Spencer Petras is back at quarterback. The O-line loses three but Iowa returns second team All-American center Tyler Linderbaum. Iowa's offense, especially the run game, looks solid. 

Defense: Iowa's defense has played 22 straight games allowing 25 points or less, and the Hawks D returns seven starters. The Hawkeyes secondary looks especially strong, as Iowa returns all four starters in the backfield (including 2nd team all-B1G safety Jack Koerner, and 3rd team all-BIG CB Riley Moss). 

Outlook: Iowa went 6-2 in 2020, winning their last six games. The team looks to be better in 2021, as the Hawkeyes are definitely good enough to win 10+ games. Iowa does have a tough schedule with crossover home games vs Indiana and Penn State, and the week two rivalry game at Iowa State. 

Northwestern

Offense: The Wildcats offense only returns four starters, with the biggest losses being QB Peyton Ramsey to graduation, and right tackle Rashawn Slater to the NFL Draft. South Carolina transfer Ryan Hilinski is the projected quarterback for Northwestern. Northwestern will likely use a runningback by committee.

Defense: Like the offense, the Wildcats defense only returns four starters, with the biggest losses being Greg Newsome to the NFL Draft, and their top two tacklers to graduation. Two of the four returning starters are D-linemen, and that's Northwestern's best defensive unit on paper.

Outlook: No one is expecting Northwestern to make noise in the Big Ten West this year, but again no one expected them to do much last year when they won the division. They avoid crossover games vs Ohio State, Indiana and Penn State. That alone is reason for optimism for the Wildcats. 

Minnesota

Offense: 10 starters are back, including all Big Ten runningback Mohamed Ibrahim and quarterback Tanner Morgan. They do lose their top wide receiver Rashod Bateman, but they return five of their six top pass catchers. The Gophers offense looks good for 2021.

Defense: Like the offense, 10 starters are back. Their defense last year was inexperienced with only four returning starters from 2019's stout defense (which included All-American CB Antoine Winfield Jr.), and they struggled giving up 30 points per game, only ninth best in the B1G.

Outlook: The Gophers offense is much stronger than their defense, and how much Minnesota's defense improves will make or break their season. They have two tough crossover games, one being the Thursday night opener on Sept 2 at home vs Ohio State, and a road game at Indiana on Nov 20. 

Nebraska

Offense: The Huskers offense averaged only 23 PPG last year, third worst in the B1G. Starting quarterback Adrian Martinez is back at Nebraska for his junior year. They do return five of their top six pass catchers, but can someone emerge at runningback? Nebraska's top two rushers last year were quarterbacks. 

Defense: The Huskers defense slipped a bit in 2020 giving up 29 points per game compared to 28 in 2019. Nebraska has 10 starters back defensively including their top eight tacklers. One would think that Nebraska's defense has to get better in 2021. 

Outlook: Things have developed slower than expected under Scott Frost, as he hasn't taken the Huskers to a bowl in his first three years. They should win four of their first five games, but have a brutal finish with Ohio State on Nov 6, at Wisconsin on Nov 20, and the annual Black Friday game vs Iowa on Nov 26. 

Purdue

Offense: The Boilermakers return nine on offense, but one of their losses was do it all wide receiver Rondale Moore to the NFL. Jack Plummer (son of Jake, the ASU/Broncos QB) is projected to start at quarterback for Purdue. Can Brohm's offense get back to 2018-19 levels with 30+ points a game?

Defense: Like the offense, the Boilers return nine on defense, but do lose two of their top four tacklers. The Boilers gave up 30 points a game in 2020, slightly less than the 31 points a game in 2019. The Boilermakers hope to see a more dramatic improvement in 2021. 

Outlook: Purdue has a more experienced team, although they lose some of their best players from 2020. The Boilermakers have to perform well during their first five games (four are very winnable), because they have a brutal final seven games (they face Iowa, Wisconsin, Indiana and Ohio State during that stretch).

Illinois 

Offense: Michigan graduate transfer Brandon Peters is the projected starter at quarterback for the Illini. QB Isaiah Williams moved to wide receiver. The offense does return nine starters, but they have a long hill to climb as Illinois averaged 20 points per game in 2020, second worst in the Big Ten. 

Defense: Illinois defense is in a similar position as their offense. The Illini do return nine defensive starters, but they gave up 35 points a game defensively in 2020, second worst in the Big Ten. Needless to say, the defense also has a long hill to climb in 2021.

Outlook: It's Bret Bielema's first year back in the Big Ten in 2021, and he has the unenviable task of inheriting a program that went 2-6 last year. The program was as bad as it's record indicates, they were second worst in both scoring offense and defense. Illinois has a long way to go. 

Long story short....

Wisconsin is the favorite and a playoff contender, but Iowa will give them a run for their money. Northwestern isn't great on paper, but they've surprised us before. Minnesota is the high-risk, high-reward pick in the division. Nebraska has enough players back to finally improve. Purdue doesn't look great, but still has a shot at a bowl game. Illinois is the worst team in the division.

What's next?

A position-by-position preview of the 2021 Ohio State Buckeyes. This article will drop on Thursday, as I'm out of town the next three days.